Market and Economy Watch – July 2021
August 23, 2021
By Oumar Dicko, Chief Economist, CADA
New vehicle sales were slightly down in July amid the global microchip shortage. An estimate by DesRosiers Automotive Consultants (DAC) indicates that July sales were down by 5.7% compared to the same period last year, and approximately down by 10% from the pre-COVID-19 levels in 2019.
Total sales for the month reached an estimated 155,657 units. On a seasonally adjusted basis, DAC estimates that sales improved on a month-over-month basis, reaching 1.71 million units.
However, this was a weaker performance than expected, as provincial economies across Canada moved to a higher stage of reopening in July following the strict restrictions this spring. Supply constraints and low inventory likely curbed sales, and the market remains significantly down from 2019.
At the macroeconomics level, demand continues to strengthen. The economy added over 325,000 jobs since June, households’ excess savings remain elevated, and consumer confidence is climbing as the vaccination pace has rapidly accelerated this summer. All indicators seem to point to a strong second half of the year for auto sales.
That said, we remain cautiously optimistic. Although production growth has resumed in North America and other parts of the world, inventory levels across Canada remain low and will likely persist through the first quarter of 2022.
Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.
Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.
Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.